まずWeb2.0について，Dion Hinchclｆｆｅのブログから。
1) Web 2.0 Will Not Peak in 2006 But the Term Will
2) 37signals Will Cross The 1,000,000 User Mark
3) Microsoft Faceplants Twice with Live Software, But Third Time Is the Charm
4) Grassroots Use of Web 2.0 Ideas Will Be A Big Story
5) Everything Will Get An RSS Feed
6) The Quest to Monetize Web 2.0 Will Continue (to Struggle)
7) Web 2.0 Will Enter the Public Consciousness
8) Outages of Major Web 2.0 Software Sites Will Cause a Crisis of Faith
9) Provider Switching Will Grow Important, Especially With Blogs
10) Bubble 2.0 Won't Happen
前から気にしていたのが，37Signals。いろんな所で昨年のベストソフトとして高く評価されているが，今年もさらに大飛躍するという。ASP版グループウェアである。すごそうだが，使ったことがないので良さが実感できていない。また，RSSについては，期待をこめて着実に浸透していくと予測。騒々しいWeb2.0の事業性はどうか。ソーシャルブックマークとか写真共有などのサービスやオフィス系ソフトもタダが当たり前になってきているだけに，今年もWeb2.0の収益モデルの模索が続くと見ている。バブル2.0に終わらなければよいが・・。
ブログ専門出版社WeblogsのCEOであるJason Calacanisは，彼のブログで次のように予測している。
1. Someone will do the Wikipedia version of Weblogs, Inc. and and it will fail because it never reaches critical mass.・
2. 30 of the 50 blog networks will fizzle out and/or die.
3. Metblogs and Gothamist will both raise venture or seed capital.
4. DIGG will be bought by CNET.
5. CNET will be bought by Yahoo or Fox Interactive/Newscorp.
6. Newscorp (and maybe some other folks) might spin out their Interactive assets and take them public
7. New York Times will cut the newsroom staff by 10-20% and face another Jayson Blair/Judith Miller-style scandal.
8. Google's stock will take it's first significant hit (> 15% drop) at some point during the year,
9. Google Adsense for Podcasts and/or Video will debut in Q2/Q3 of 2006--Yahoo and Microsoft will follow shortly after that.
10. Half of the indie blog search engines will shut down, go out of business, or just stagnate as the major portals take over this space.
11. Half of the indie RSS readers will shut down, go out of business, or just stagnate as the major portals take over this space.
12. No podcasting company will have any significant success in 2006, but a number of podcasters will be offered great jobs at Sirius and XM Radio.
13. The housing bubble will deflate/burst and consumer confidence and spending will be moderately shaken.
・・・・・・
16. Gawker will hit 20 blogs and get bought by Newscorp
・・・
DiggがCNETによって買収され，そのCNETがYahooかNews.Corpに買収されると・・。あくまでこれは噂のレベルであろうが，今年もメディア企業の買収ニュースが頻繁に飛び込んでくるのは間違いなさそう。
Kevin Burtonも彼のブログの中で，次の予測を。
1. Microformats vs Structured Blogging skirmish.
2. Way too much money funding too many also-ran startups.
3. Both AOL and Amazon will want to get into the blog search space.
4. Internet Explorer 7.0 (if it ever ships) will help make RSS explode.
5. Yahoo will purchase at least 4 more Web 2.0 companies in Q1 - Q2.
6. TailRank will take off
読むに値するブログ記事をフィルタリングするサイトが，注目の的になっている。その中でmemeorandumが今や人気沸騰のサイトに。 TailRank もブログフィルタリング・サイトで，良いと思われるブログ記事をほぼリアルタイムに次々と教えてくれるサイトだ。
Pat McCarthyもブログの中で10の予測を。
1. RSS will become two-way with the help of Simple Sharing Extensions from Microsoft
2. Social news site Digg will expand into other content areas and media types and then will be acquired
3. Web 2.0 will be looked down upon as a buzzword, and it’s usage will drop off dramatically
4. Face-recognition photo application Riya will be acquired by a major player.
5. Some ecommerce shopping applications using the more recent advancements in social web technologies will be developed and will succeed.
6. Google Analytics will again drop the hammer on the web analytics industry.
7. A forward thinking company will build technology to support transparency, efficiency, and relationships in the online advertising business.
8. Microsoft will launch a contextual advertising network that will either be huge, or fail miserably
9. Two to three new startups will be so cool and successful they will make the heroes of 2005 like Flickr and del.icio.us seem small and insignificant
10. The venture capital investments and acquisition bubble will heat up even more, then deflate in the 2nd half of 2006 after a number of companies fail..
Flickrや del.icio.us のようなクールでワクワクするベンチャー企業が，2006年に新たに2〜3社は出現するそうな。
